Market analysis (09/19/1401)

The Chinese have become active with the reduction of Corona restrictions, and as January and the Chinese Eid are approaching, they have started shopping, but the price of oil is on a downward trend and this trend is likely to continue. The price of scrap metal has increased in the past weeks, and China’s demand and the increase in the price of scrap metal have stabilized the price of ingots. As long as the Chinese continue to buy, the market will remain stable, but after that, you should expect a drop in the price of bullion because the price of oil is falling. Of course, there are talks that with the opening of the Chinese market, the increasing trend of demand will intensify. Even some economists expect that the inflation that took place in America in the last one or two years will also be seen in China, but this will be clear after the Chinese holidays.
In the domestic market
The gas problem has severely affected the supply of sponge iron, and because of this, the supply of sponge iron has reached its lowest level in the commodity exchange. Despite the stock market’s efforts to increase the supply, the production problem continues, this has led the market to conclude that the price of bullion will increase, followed by the stages. The effect of sponge iron supply restriction on the price of domestic scrap is very serious and has increased its price to a large extent. On the other hand, induction ingot units are greatly affected by this and their production will be greatly reduced. Considering the above, there will naturally be competition in the purchase of sponge iron and the price will rise. This article will directly affect the supply and price of bullion, while the bullion is also facing delivery problems. Most of the experts expect that the price of ingots will increase.
But in the case of sheets, reducing the customs duties of hot sheet and cold sheet to 1% means that the export volume of slabs and hot sheet will increase, but its effect will be seen in the market from February onwards.
The steel market is going through a very bitter experience and maybe in the history of this industry, 1401 will remain as the most stagnant year of the steel market. Getting out of this recession requires bold policies, and the only solution is to abandon exports at least for the next month or two.