Market analysis (09/12/1401)

It seems that from the beginning of next year, the Chinese market will improve with the removal of restrictions and the government’s plan for housing. But the global economic conditions do not show signs of prosperity. Establishing a price ceiling for Russian oil and gas will cause fluctuations in the oil market because consumers will try to buy their oil close to this price from the world markets. Of course, the OPEC+ meeting is coming up in the coming days, and if it does not reduce production, the oil market will go down. The total of this trend has kept steel demand cautious. The winter season, along with the recession, reduces the demand for steel and brings the prices close to their bottom.
There is no demand for steel in Iran, and on the other hand, the psychological atmosphere of the market is negative and worried about social and transportation issues. All these factors have caused the stock market to remain without buyers. The stock market continues to work knowing that its prices are about eight to ten percent higher than the market and has no plans to change the pricing system. The implication is that the government’s policy is to continue the stagnation of the domestic market and encourage exports, which is in this direction. He closes his eyes to many things. The policy of controlling inflation is the only option of the government, increasing the supply of currency to money changers, auctioning gold and bonds all express this view. Economics says that in a situation where there is an embargo and the general budget of the government is increasing every day, the recession will be deeper and the inflation will be higher. Although today the government is trying to curb it, avoiding it requires structural changes that are not limited to economic programs.
The supply of sponge iron is not consistent with the volume of ingots and bars. Recently, the supply of sponge iron has been very limited and will probably continue due to the gas problem. But in contrast to the supply of 70,000 tons of sponge, 200,000 tons of ingots and 300,000 tons of rebar are supplied. The question is, is there a balance among these supplies?